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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.