How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.