A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
